LABOR MARKET
ELMA Quarterly Demand Update, September 2026
St. Louis employers spent the last two years searching for workers to fill vacancies that pay a living wage and do not require a four-year degree. This update tracks which ones, what you can earn, and where they lead.
The full Enhanced Labor Market Analysis surfaced a fundamental question. Employers are looking for workers. Thousands of low- and moderate-income residents are looking for a pathway to a better economic future. Why aren’t they connecting?
ELMA calls that disconnect the Labor Market Friction Gap. This update takes it on by focusing on Opportunity Occupations, the in-demand jobs where you can earn a living wage and can be reached without a bachelor’s degree.
ELMA sets that living-wage threshold for the St. Louis region at $50,000 in median annual earnings for one person. The analysis covers eight quarters, July 2024 through June 2026, and tracks the fifteen Opportunity Occupations with the most job postings in the region each quarter.
This is the demand half. ELMA brings together demand and supply intelligence, the specific occupations employers need, what they pay, what education and skills they require, and where those opportunities intersect with the characteristics, barriers, and geography of low- and moderate-income residents.
Registered Nurses led all eight quarters
At 2,104 job postings a month in Q2 2026 against median annual earnings of $87,418. Truck Drivers followed at 1,020 postings and $59,407. Maintenance and Repair Workers came third at 407 postings and $53,643, a job whose typical entry-level requirement is a high school diploma.
The top of the list barely moves. The ten most in-demand Opportunity Occupations held exactly the same rank in all eight quarters, which is what makes them worth building programs around. The movement happens at the edges, where nineteen different occupations passed through the fifteen slots over two years.
Demand also concentrates. SSM Health Care, BJC HealthCare, and Mercy were the region’s three largest job posters between April and June 2026, together accounting for 8,464 unique postings. Boeing was fourth with 1,553. Retail employers held five of the top fifteen employer spots.
The pathways climb further than the entry wage suggests
A nursing assistant certificate opens at $40,426. With additional training that becomes an LPN at $65,846, then a registered nurse at $87,418 with an associate or bachelor’s degree, and a nurse practitioner at $137,735 with a master’s.
Trucking runs the same way. A sales delivery driver earns $43,218 and a shuttle driver $40,256. A postsecondary certificate moves either to truck driver at $59,407, then transportation supervisor at $63,869, and eventually transportation and distribution manager at $110,256.
Maintenance branches. A maintenance and repair assistant starts at $38,280 and moves to maintenance and repair worker at $53,643. From there it goes two ways, to repair and maintenance supervisor at $81,209 with a few years of experience, or to HVAC technician at $63,617 with a postsecondary certificate.
These are common trajectories rather than the only routes into or beyond a given occupation. The first rung on each ladder pays below the $50,000 threshold. They are entry points into a pathway, not destinations, and the pathway is the point.
The jobs are here. The connections are not.
Employers keep posting jobs that pay well and do not require a bachelor’s degree. Too many residents remain disconnected from them, and the reason is not a lack of potential. The systems that link people to information, preparation, credentials, and employers are still fragmented.
That is solvable. It takes employers, training providers, workforce organizations, and community partners aligning recruitment, training, supportive services, and hiring around the occupations that offer the strongest prospects for advancement.
Read the September 2026 update
ELMA turns complex labor market data into insights you can use.
Job posting and earnings data from Lightcast. Education distribution from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample, 2020 to 2024 five-year estimates. Career pathway data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Occupational Mobility Explorer and Lightcast.
ELMA was developed for the Inclusive Prosperity Partnership by Key Strategic Group in partnership with Civic Insight, East-West Gateway Council of Governments, and United For ALICE. The initiative is funded and supported by IPP investors.